अजित चिंतन

Monday, 11 May 2020


Crisis In Search of A New Synthesis
-Ajit Abhyankar 
Jean Paul Sartre a French Existentialist Philosopher and member of militia fighting German occupation of France writes in 1944 about the resistance  “Never were we freer than under the German occupation…..Resistance was a true democracy; for the soldier, as for his superior, the same danger, the same loneliness, the same responsibility, the same absolute freedom within the discipline.” 
The world under the occupation of  Corona 19 is undergoing the same experience today. All are facing the house arrest under lock down facing the same fear, anxiety and mass threat to life although poor are the most vulnerable sections to suffer the most and the worst. Lenin, commenting upon the Russian Revolution  had observed “there are decades in human history when nothing happens and then there are some weeks when decades happen”. These are those weeks under Covid19 lockdown when the decade full of history is moving fast forward.
The question before us is are we facing a crisis of mere survival or of authenticity of human existence as a global community, as was indicated by Sartre in 1944 ?

But why is Covid19 so serious ?
Pandemics are not unknown to mankind. Human history has witnessed serious epidemics such as Bubonic Plague killing 1/3 of European Population( 1345-1350 ), Spanish Flue of 1918 -19 killing about 5 crores in the world, of which 1.75 crore were Indians constituting about  5% of then Indian Population. AIDS-HIV virus has killed so far 3.20 crores of people since its major incidence from 1996 averaging about 1,40,000 deaths per year for last 24 years. In 2009 H1N1 swine flu virus had infected as many as 1.4 billion people and killed more than 1,51,700 people across the globe.
The Carona death toll at the global level till today is 1,61,784 (19th April ) which relatively appears to be a very small number in comparison to the pandemics of Spanish Flu and Bubonic Plague. If so, why has the world  become explosively sensitive to this pandemic? Why this total close down of social life ?
 Although generation of Covid 19 pathogen is an act of nature, the aftermath & trauma it has caused for human race was more of than avoidable. During Bubonic Pague(1345), Spanish Flu(1918) pandemics, humanity had no clue of viruses ,their vaccine, medicine or even prevention. Now hospitals can diagnose the new symptoms and new diseases immediately on their occurrence. The research laboratories can identify and find the RNA sequence of any virus/ bacteria within a week and can share the same all over the world in a few hours and the vaccine of medication can be worked upon in weeks.
Covid19 stuck in spite of astonishing strides of human knowledge in virology and capability to intervene at a flash speed; it happened despite deafening warning bells rung by SARS and H1N1 epidemics of 2000 and 2009 and echoed by the international agencies such as WHO sponsored Global  Preparedness Report  Board (GPRB)Sept 2019  says “ A rapidly spreading pandemic due to a lethal respiratory pathogen (whether naturally emergent or accidentally or deliberately released) poses additional preparedness requirements. Donors and multilateral institutions must ensure adequate investment in developing innovative vaccines and therapeutics, surge manufacturing capacity, broad-spectrum anti virals and appropriate non-pharmaceutical interventions. All countries must develop a system for immediately sharing genome sequences of  any new pathogen for public health purposes along with the means to share limited medical countermeasures across countries…..”

THE VIRUS IS INSIDE THE SYSTEM !
Five major policy shifts in last 2 decades are visible across the globe, barring of course a few countries.
1.      Shift from Public Health To  Medical Care. Public Health and Medical Care are two aspects of health care systems.Medical caere Public health and its research has a prime focus on major threats to the health of populations. Its research moves between laboratory and field. It runs on Public service ethic. Its emphasis is on disease prevention and health promotion for the whole community. Medical Care, on the other hand, is thoroughly focused upon individual patient’s disease diagnosis, treatment, and care. Its research is stimulated by needs of patients and moves between laboratory & bedside. While both are essential components of a countries Health Care system, we have bypassed the Public Health aspect for the simple reason that it lacks lucrative profit opportunities for the big corporate houses. The world finds itself an absolutely helpless situation in any pandemic as the institutional and policy framework for community health and preventive health care is conspicuously absent across the globe .For example the UK spends £97 billion of public money on treating disease, while only £8 billion on preventing it[1]. From the perspective of private sector, the public health issues symbolize the ‘cost’ and medical care becomes an opportunity for profit. Therefore for last two decades even the public money for health care is spent on funding insurance premium/subsidizing hospitalization expenses of the poor which ultimately goes into the kitty of the private sector hospitals and pharmaceutical companies. No wonder the profits are internalized by them and ‘costs’ are either externalized or neglected or both. The technical capability of research along with the strength of public health institutions have systematically been either hijacked or paralyzed for the want of funding and policy support by this policy shift mimicking what Covid 19 does to your lungs inside the body. Consequentially even the international bodies such as WHO were made toothless  and proved to be utter failure of preventive actions on global scale in spite of the some efforts made in that direction.
2.      Shift Form Innovative Companies To Big Corporate Giants – Last two decades have seen the fattening of big Pharmaceutical companies effected through mergers and takeovers. These takeovers more than often are found to be motivated by suppressing or preventing  the cheaper and better innovative alternative drugs in the markets. One such take over has been directly responsible for the non availability of life saving ventilators in treating Covid cases. Following is the account of how such a takeover exemplifies this phenomena.
The world health professionals and experts  alerted by the outbreaks endemics and pandemics of H1 N1 Swine Flu, two variants of Corona Viruses namely SARS and MERS in 2000, 2003 onwards, had warned the governments about the requirements of medical equipments and protective gears. Accordingly US agency Centre for Disease Control (CDC) in 2008 ,decided to have a stock pile of 70,000 small and affordable ventilators. After negotiations contract was given to a small company Newport from California, specializing in ventilators to supply 40,000 ventilators @$ 3000/- per piece. This design was an innovation and was cheaper than the existing market price of $10,000/- a piece. The prototypes were made in 2011 and approved by the Authorities. Everything was moving as per the plan. Things took an adverse turn when Newport was taken over by an equipment manufacturing giant named Covedian. (A shocking irony!!). The US government could have taken objection to this takeover in public interest. But chose not to. Covedian cancelled the contract in 2014 mostly to maintain the higher profit margins in selling the ventilators with high prices. Nothing happened for a long time as the issue was not on priority list of any of the Government Agency. Later somehow the contract was given to Phillips. No ventilators necessary for preparation against a pandemic designed in 2011 could reach US till 2020 in spite of millions of public funds spent for the same. Ironically  after thousands of US citizens lose their lives for the want of ventilators, first assignment is due in May2020!!![2]  It should be remembered in due course Covedian was taken over by Medtronics which shifted its corporate office to Ireland, a tax heaven, to siphon off the profits from USA for a clear motive of tax avoidance. This itself shows the criminal culpability behind such take over.
This example of Covedian killing the innovation and possibility of cheaper ventilators is not an exception, but a rule in pharmaceutical and medical supply industry. A  paper called Killer Acquisitions, published in 2018 by the researchers at Yale and the London Business School observed that in 45 instances per year on average the giant pharmaceutical firms buy out their smaller competitors who are  developing rival drugs/ therapies that could cut into the profits of the giants and finally ensure that such better and cheaper innovations never see the light of the day. The purchase of Spark Therapeutics, by Roche in 2018 vividly exemplifies this. This was simply because Spark Therapeutics  was successfully testing a one-time hemophilia. This treatment was cutting directly into the  Roche’s hemophilia drug Hemlibra which is required to be administered every four weeks. No wonder the one time treatment on hemophilia now is put on shelf forever so that Roche continues to get enormous super profits at the cost of mental and financial burden on the hemophilia patients!![3] 
3.      Shift From Public Medical Care To Private Insurance Based Medical Care-   It is the privatization of health care and its intellectual framework that has failed humanity and not Covid 19. It is the failure of this ‘profits before people’ approach that has gripped the public policy of the countries across the world for more than a decade from now.  Finally it has exposed the essential contradiction that individual’s health and even medical care is not a private good ; but is essentially a public good. The privatization approach based upon this myth has finally been exposed to the core. It is this approach that made the healthcare in US and many European countries uncoordinated – and ungoverned. Since the epidemic’s onset, hospital and city and state governments have waged “bidding wars” over crucial supplies and ventilators, as noted by the New York Times. Now every hospital is for itself: some are resorting to appeals to community  for donations of masks. It should be noted that medical care for Covid19 is to be borne by the individual through his /her insurance cover, if any. This makes 30% of the US population without adequate or any protection. Only the tests would be free as announced by Trump recently after more than million are infected. Trump suggested to the state governors to procure respirators, ventilators and all of the equipment – themselves as reported by the New York Times. The privatization approach has made healthcare system an atomized chaos, hospitals  and multi-hospital chains  as silos wherein some rich and some poor, each fending for themselves are locked in market competition.
4.      Shift From Global Vision of  UNO  To LPG vision of WTO –After the two devastating  World Wars an international consensus was attempted with the formation of UNO. For more than 30 years, it enlarged its scope beyond military -security issues by setting the international policy standards and treaties for addressing socio -economic issues such as child care, health care, women’s dignity, drugs menace, international tax havens, eradication of killing diseases and even the issues in unfair international trade etc. After the collapse of Soviet Union, and since the formation of WTO in 1994, entire focus of the world’s big powers was shifted to promote private corporate freedom to globalize their investments, supply chains and profits which is described by the acronym of LPG(Liberalization, Privatization, Globalization.) It led to commercialization of all public spheres of life including the public goods such as health, education, water, rivers etc. Political economy of the world today is nothing but a living contradiction wherein the capital and corporate houses are governed by global rules of ‘liberalization’ while all vital social and environmental  issues such as employment, public health ,pollution  are left to be managed locally!! The solutions and strategies for pandemics in form of cures, knowledge and protective equipments are controlled and locked the till the last drop of blood by the Intellectual Property Rights by modern Shylocks, the big corporate houses. At best they are managed by the weak local national governments but not necessarily shared internationally. Thus the ‘powers’ which unanimously decide  protocols of capital investment can not come together and finalize a global strategy for the meeting the challenge of pandemic such as Covid-SARS-MERS-H1N1  in spite of warning bells ringing loud and clear from 2007.
5.      Shift Towards Private Intellectual Property Rights even with Public Money:  The pharmaceutical companies which used to be research driven innovation based companies have now turned into IPR(Intellectual Property Rights ) based brand managing monopoly giants. It would be shocking to know that even in March 2020 while passing a $ 8 billion (800 crores) package for Covid relief of which $3 billion(300 crores) would be for research for vaccine-medicine development, the pharmaceutical companies did not accept the clause of losing monopoly IPR if the prices are not found affordable by the Government. When thousands are dying of Covid just for the want of vaccines and medicines and even when the state is passing an emergency funding programme worth $ 3 billions for research, pharmaceutical monopoly giants have not budged  an inch from their castles of monopoly rights; all at the cost of public money !!There has been a complete shift towards decontrolling the pharmaceutical industry from all of its public obligations. Consequentially, the prices of essential medicines and therapies have skyrocketed in last 20 years. The super profits of these companies have become major health hazard in itself. Covid vaccine and treatment is not an exception to this. 60 Members of US congress submitted a letter to US President on February 20,2020 to make an appeal to ensure that the vaccines and medicines to used against Covid should not be granted exclusive monopoly rights to any pharmaceutical company so as to keep the prices of this vaccine low and affordable. It has pointed out that 80% of the research funding i.e. Rs. $700 million has been made from the public money paid by the tax payers. It is revealed through this letter that the $ 700million. The letter also point out that unjustifiably high drug prices are one of the most pressing public health concerns US faces today. It is even more shocking to note that US health secretary Alex Azar made a public statement that in spite of such a huge public expenditure on vaccine research, he would not guarantee that Covid treatments or vaccines would be affordable. 
Conclusion
Unfortunately even bigger crises are waiting next door. The pandemic of Covid may look dwarf with melting of polar ice and rising ocean water levels in the years to come. It is inescapable to conclude that what world needs most now is wisdom rather than algorithms of financial investments. We have the means; but the ends and systems messed up beyond recognition in name of penny wise and pound foolish economic “rationality”. Just as cosmic astronomy needs radio telescope and can not work with optical lenses, the globalized world today needs new vision, new ideas, new synthesis.
 Calamities shape societies because  systems are created and obliterated. The current world order which is based deregulated markets, minimum role of governments and ethical concerns in economic activities, global supply chains and the excessive role of global financial institutions, cannot withstand any environmental or health apocalypse.
This calls for a new cognitive revolution for human future. As Noval Yuv Harrari  has observed in his book Sapiens and Homo Deus, the success of the sapiens lies in the cognitive revolution. It has led to limitless  range of co-operation without  physical limits because it binds the people unknown to each other to a common purpose around intellectual fictions-ideas such society, nation, company, god, future, history, salvation, good, bad, value etc. which exist in the minds ;but are relied even more than the objective reality perceived by all our senses. Karl Marx also observes in German Ideology  that the ideas when grip the imagination of masses they become a material force in history.  
Can this unite the world for charting a new order? 
Bertrand Russell and Albert Einstein along with prominent scientists across the world signed a Peace Manifesto in April 1955 exhorting for a new world order in the dark shadows of nuclear arms race. Unfortunately Einstein died within one week of signing the manifesto. The scientists and philosopher thinkers had warned in the manifesto  The prospect for the human race is sombre beyond all precedent. Mankind is faced with a clear-cut alternative: either we shall all perish, or we shall have to acquire some slight degree of common sense. A great deal of new political thinking will be necessary if utter disaster is to be averted.”
 Devastating world crises have always acted as power houses for new philosophies, ideas for new institutions and ways of life. New philosophical lens can transform a situation of crisis by infusion of new meaning and perspective of life. Alternatively it may spoil the situation as well.
The devastation caused by two world wars led to the formation of UNO with a philosophy of one world ,one humanity, world security council, and even one social agenda !  
 Covid 19 has pushed the entire world inside ‘safety bunkers’ of our own houses.  The future history is being rewritten out there on the deserted streets, locked factories, empty offices and stunned faces. 
In a matter of a week, the fast pacing, untoppable earth stood still. Human race is experiencing overnight a complete lifestyle change. The way we work, we interact, we think, we valorize, we prioritize.
This calls for a paradigm change which had been waiting round the corner last 3 decades. This reminds us what Victor Hugo, a great writer and social thinker of 18th century has said ‘ No force on earth can stop an idea whose time has come.’ 

Covid 19 will and actually is changing the way we work, we interact, we think, we valorize, we prioritize. This is leading us to nothing but a paradigm shift waiting round the corner for last 3 decades. This reminds us what Victor Hugo a great French romantic poet and thinker of 19th century had said ‘ No force on earth can stop an idea whose time has come.’ I think the time for the idea of designing a society based on a philosophy of public good, public trust, public ownership, environmental ethics has arrived.
If deserted streets, locked factories, closed offices and stunned faces are not to be our future, we have to look for new solutions. Just a telescope in the hands of an intriguing mind targeted at the skies changed the world history, humanity needs to project its gadgets and powers in the right direction.  
-Ajit Abhyankar





Mere ‘Package’  won’t work….

WE  NEED  A WHOLE ‘NEW  DEAL’ 

-by Ajit Abhynakar
It appears from the unofficial newspaper reports that the various governments have declared packages ranging between 9 %of GDP(US)  to less than one percent of GDP (India).There would be debates on the quantum and composition of these packages and rightly to be so.
However, such a package at this critical juncture wherein decades are happening in weeks, needs a multi dimensional consideration. Here is an attempt to bring forth such missing dimensions without which the package would  become illusory. An attempt is also made to present rough quantitative picture of the components of package and its sourcing. This is for the Central Government as it is the principal taxation authority collecting 11% of GDP as its net tax collection. 
Package has to be anorganic integration of multi sided plans, financial provisions and actions. It can’t merely be an altered order of financial allocations by the government. The rubric and fabric of thinking has to be qualitatively different in the days of a survival disaster such as Corona.
In the capitalist world hit by the Great Depression 1929-34, New Deal of 1933 showed the end of tunnel. New deal became historical milestone of not only for US capitalism, but for the economic policy of the world capitalist system. It was not merely a “package for salvage” since it humbly changed the lens of the policy making. The quotes by Franklin Roosevelt created shudders in the whole capitalist world. Deviating from the sacred principle of laissez faire he had said “The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; It is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.
Even if a calamity is generatednaturally, how various groups in society face the same, is conditioned socially as well as politically. The Covid19 pandemic has exposed many fractures and fissures of the system. Looking at the aftermath of Covid19 it needs to be examined  whether systemic collapse is really an effect or is itself a cause for such a pandemic.  This multiple organ collapse appears to be a déjà vu of the world in 1930s through1940s although reasons are different. Thus the time today is more than overdue for a Global New Deal.
Quantum of the Package
It is on this backdrop that package needs to be discussed.
How much is enough ?
 This is more of a political economic question; and can be examined within the range of what is necessary and possible. As for the total quantum it may be said that for India about6% of GDP has to be the package in the coming period of 12 months. The figure is arrived at by taking a realistic view of necessity of funds for various heads , Tax-GDP ratio,the viable limits of Fiscal Deficit, and the borrowing potential by the Government. Thus taking India’s GDP at 216 lakh Crores the package must be of 12 lakh crores. See the table below. These are exclusive of the provisions already made in  the budget 2020- 21 for the relevant heads.
The package amount can be sourced as follows.
Table 1-Sources of Funds for the Corona Relief Package
SR. No.
Source of Funds
Amount
Rs. Lakh Crores
1
FromIncreased Collection of Direct Taxes
35% increase in the Budget Estimates 20-21 to be sourced from-

-Roll back of Corporate Tax Concessions In 2019,
-Re-imposition and -Re enforcement of Wealth tax
-Increasing the Security Transaction Tax  
-Taking Action against tax evasion from tax havens
4.00
2
Drawing on Reserves from Reserve Bank of India
  2.00
3
Additional Borrowings by Government of India( 75% Higher than budgeted for 2020-21.) Taking FiscalDeficit to 6%

  6.00

Total

12.00

Table -2  Components of Central Package With Indicative Financial Burden

Sr.No.
Component
Amount
In Lakh Crs.
1
Immediate Medical Intervention and Stock pile for the future Epidemics, Community health systems
Cost of testing & treatment to  Covid 19 victims tested at government, and Vaccine, Suits, Ventilators,
2.00

2
Financial Rescue for the casual and informal workers
(Food, Shelter, Transport, Medicine etc. for 9.3 million Casual Workers located in urban areas i.e. 5 crores @ Rs.11,000 per person (@ Rs.3,000/- for rescue And 8000 as direct financial support  )

1.00
3
Farmers Cash Package for 14 Crores Farmers with a Cash subsidy of Rs.7,000/-each (other than given presently under KisanSanmanyojana
1.00
4
Loan Waiver Schemes for Farmers and Small Producers
2.00
4
Enhanced MNREGA (Covering Urban and Rural Area) 
3.00
5
Support To Small Employers (Interest Holiday Subsidy to Banks @20 % of Interest income of Commercial Banks. )
3.00

Total –- This is approx. 6.0% of GDP at current Prices for 2018-19
12.00

New Modeling Elements
The package has to be a guide to think and not just an accountant’s statement .It has to be based upon modeling elements as given below.
1.      Priority of saving lives and livelihoods-
a)     Rescue and Medical Care-Priority must be to provide the medical rescue, wide spread testing, purchase of equipment, recruiting staff at all levels  and care without any economic deterrents differentiation whatsoever. The needy and the poor must be provided with sufficient food and shelter free or nominal cost without any bureaucratic hassles.
b)    Supporting Small Employers -  The livelihoods (i.e. employment and means of earning income) should be the next priority. As soon as the lock down is over there would be mass closures and layoffs. The State has to take measures to ensure that the financial viability of the employing establishments is maintained even though only at the break even points. The State would have to promulgate interest holidays for certain periods (say 6months) and/or moratorium on loan recovery. The State would have to subsidize the commercial banks partially to maintain their solvency and liquidity.
c)      Massive Rural –Urban Employment Guarantee-There has to be a wide spread massive plan of employment guarantee throughout the country. MNREGA is potentially good but effectively provides employment only 47 days in a year. It has to be widened qualitatively to cover all the urban areas and covering various educated skilled and unskilled manpower. Through such a scheme, a tremendous boost can be given to make our villages-cities healthier, cleaner and safer to live, to promote civic-hygienic sense in our population, and also to a massive plan for clearing the polluted rivers and water sources,  forestation etc. It may be roughly estimated that about 5crores of people would need such as an employment support in the coming year.
d)  Supporting Farmers and the UnorganizedWorkers-  The farmers have lost almost all their income due to the lock down. Farmers as well as unorganized workers , street vendors, thelawalas,  rickshaw drivers, must be paid through direct payments in their respective bank accounts.  The state will have to declare one more loan waiver for all the farmers except the super rich section of them.
2.      Relying on Social Fabric    
a)Expanding the Public and Community Health care system-  The Government will have to overhaul the health sector by enhancing community preventive health care expenditure, expanding the network of public hospitals and  recruiting the staff at all levels, free  primary public health care in and outside the hospitals(Mohalla clinics), Nationalizing the big corporate private hospitals and pathological testing units etc., regulating the drug prices and pricing by the private hospitals.    
b)The community spirit based on voluntarism-    Wars can be fought on the strength of social fabric rather than market rubric. The logic based on private accumulations can be counter productive in the situations of emergency.  Just as the world is learning an extremely hard lesson that an individual’s health (even) is not a private good as it can’t be separated from the community health as well as community medical care. The same truth has to be replicated in all socio economic spheres.The community spirit based on voluntarism with strong financial -power support of the State can work best in the times of war as the normal economic or power logic is simply unworkable.Community spirit and sense of public ethic has to be aroused even in the matters of commodity production and distribution.
c)   Community –local supply chains-Price Regulation-    Practically it would mean the voluntary price regulation in key commodities/ services, creating community supply chains, creating local livelihoods beyond the financial maximization logic. Community health care must be made a part of thinking 
3.      Principle of Moral / Social Consensus   
Unity of Purpose and Perceptions- The package is an exceptional and all round rescue and rehabilitation plan.This is where the psychology and morale of the people will produce the best results. Perceptions play a key role in such a situation. People should have almost unanimity in their perceptions about
a.                That ‘the Package' plan stands on a higher scale of ethics than normal market logic, 
b.                That there is total social consensus on the measures being taken, 
c.                That the sacrifices, if any, are fair and based upon the principles of common good rather than sectional one. 
In order to put these ideas into reality the Government would have to spend substantially devising appropriate targeted schemes. The Government would have to enter into a facilitator’s role, with necessary financial muscle so as to make the society work on community lines.

-Ajit Abhyankar  
94 223 03828
82 754 24773(Whats app)
(Writer is a Visiting Faculty at Symbiosis School of Liberal Arts, Pune,  and a Social Activist  )